Taylor LeMay, Staff Writer

As the 2026 midterm gets closer, international conflicts, voter turnout, and emerging political issues could influence the outcome, according to Valdosta State University political science professors Dr. Bernard Tamas and Dr. Michael Baun.

Both professors discussed the potential impacts and effects on American politics, including how voter attitudes toward the Trump administration and international developments could shape the election results.

Tamas explained that anger toward President Donald Trump could be a major factor driving voter turnout, specifically among Democrats. He identified education levels, Democratic enthusiasm, and voter dissatisfaction among the Republican party as three factors that could influence participation in this upcoming election.

“It’s a pretty safe bet that Democratic turnout is going to be very high,” Dr. Tamas said.

According to Dr. Tamas, Democrats have become the party associated with more highly educated voters, who are generally more likely to participate in midterm elections. He also highlighted that while Democrats appear highly energized, some Republicans outside of Trump’s core MAGA base may be displeased with the current administration.

Dr. Tamas also questioned the administration’s decision-making process, arguing that the president’s decision to attack Iran without seeking prior congressional approval or building broader international support could undermine public confidence regarding the conflict.

“It’s having a direct effect on the American public with pushing up inflation probably pushing us towards a recession,” Dr. Tamas said.

Dr. Baun similarly specified that a worsening conflict could hurt Trump politically because many Americans have grown frustrated with the war and are opposing it. He also discussed that rising energy prices and international economic instability could have negative impacts on the U.S. economy.

In addition to the Iran war, Dr. Baun discussed the potential influence of the war in Ukraine. He said that a breakthrough in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could benefit Trump if he were able to present himself as a peacemaker. However, Dr. Baun considered such a development to be highly unlikely.

Dr. Tamas identified the construction of data centers and artificial intelligence as other emerging factors that could influence voters. He said public opposition to data centers and growing concerns about AI are becoming more prominent within political discussions.

Dr. Tamas argued that Trump’s support for data centers could create political challenges for Republicans if voters continue to oppose their expansion.

“Part of the trick in politics is if the entire public is moving in one direction, don’t say the opposite and don’t call them stupid,” Dr. Tamas said.

Dr. Tamas also linked gerrymandering to being a factor that could influence election outcomes, while noting that redistricting has its limits and can sometimes lead to unintended consequences for the party attempting to benefit from it.

Dr. Baun explained that the midterm results could also influence U.S. military commitments in Europe and economic relationships with various European countries. He said that the administration appears determined to lower the American troop presence in Europe and downgrade its role in NATO.

If the Democrats gain congressional control, they could attempt to limit those decisions and block additional tariffs on European countries. However, Dr. Baun warned that a change in congressional control would not necessarily change the overall attitude Trump has toward European governments.

While domestic political attitudes and international developments could shape the 2026 midterm elections, the outcome itself will not be clear until voters cast their ballots.